Re: [IAC#RG] Govt has been lying all along on COVID

Instead of suggesting a basic lesson in infection biology, it seems what you need is a basic course in MATHEMATICS.

It is a sad reality of the complete  anarchy in the Indian education system that academics in BIOLOGY stream mostly stop learning mathematics after class 10 due to PCB "stream" system and so are far less competent than their PCM stream peers.The PM's chosen 10th class maths pass Chairman of Covid empowered committee at NITI AYG who publicly predicted that Covid-19 would be snuffed out by 16 May 2020 being a prize example.

Since we seem to agree agree that Govt should have done very much more testing and been open about their numbers, one can very safely conclude that all statistics disseminated till date by them are actually BOGUS and fictitious.

Dr. Roy is correct when he says that this government has deliberately set out  toinfect as many Indians as possible as rapidly as possible. I have also said much the same thing on this forum  Some very PRAGMATIC people in government had decided between a millions Indian dying versus boosting Mukesh Ambani's trillions on the "frothy" stock markets where they booked their profit so long as SEBI was not enforcing margins. Every IAS / IPS officer on Ambani's "payroll" is a multi crore-pati now due to Covid.

Regarding paras 3, 4,5 of your email it is very difficult to discuss such things with a person who is not well grounded in mathematics and statistics. Even the most basic global population weighted  metrics of deaths/million or cases/million or testing per million of India versus the rest of the world would educate you on where .India ranks  under this INCOMPETENT and CORRUPT government.

Numbers don't lie, people do.

Ravi, Ph.D.

On Tue, Jul 28, 2020 at 3:48 AM Akash Saini <indiaresists@lists.riseup.net> wrote:

What you probably need is a basic lesson in infection biology. 

1. Just because the sero survey suggests 23% infection rate, does not mean that everyone else is lying about it. It just means that a lot more people than previously thought are asymptomatic. Yes, they should have done more tests than they have, and they should have been more transparent, but not everything is cooked up like you say. And to assume that, like the infection rate, the death rate is also 10 times higher than reported, is utter stupidity. Because as the science is revealing, its a primarily asymptomatic disease and most people do not show symptoms and therefore do not get tested. This is also why the disease is spreading so rapidly and widely, because the asymptomatic people do not know that they have it and therefore have no idea that they are spreading it. However, while infection can be asymptomatic (and therefore remain hidden), death is not associated with asymptomatic infections and is very much noticeable. 

2. That governments deliberately wanted to infect people, is a baseless and a rather stupid claim. I can understand (and to some extent agree) if you say that they are incompetent or could have done better, but calling them murderous is outrageous and only shows how logically bankrupt you are.

3. There is no evidence to suggest that declining rate means 60% have been infected. You are probably talking about herd immunity, but please know that passing the peak of infection does not mean that herd immunity has been kicked in. Studies have shown no trace of herd immunity having developed in Italy and New York, where Covid has created havoc.

4. What studies have shown is that antibody protection lasts for 75 days; however T-cell response can last for longer and can provide protection from re-infection. This is still being studied and the jury is still out on the level of immunity that a single infection provides. Please refrain from coming to (stupid) conclusions on the basis of WhatsApp forwards. Yes, there is a good chance of second wave, but not for the reasons you mentioned.

Please do some reading and use logic before you send group emails like this.

Thanks

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Best regards,

Akash Saini, Ph.D.

Ph: +91-9717616746