To:
Lt. Col Rajinder Dalvi
Administrator - IAC#RG mailing list
Germany
Sir
Sub: Lockdowns have totally failed to achieve their objective
With due respect to all the members of this list, many of whom seem to have a political axe to grind, I am setting out some graphs being circulated in scientific community so that IAC/HRA members can make informed decisions about their actions/lives.
I would be highly obliged if these were distributed to your mailing list's membership for their comments and feedback considering the subject matter and the high academic standards of your list membership.
NB: For sake of convenience the starting date has been taken as 01-March-2020.
These graphs are in public domain so please circulate widely
Graph #1 :
R0 Index for India is a raw estimation by IIM Ahmedabad www.iimahmedabad.in
R0 Index for India is a raw estimation by IIM Ahmedabad www.iimahmedabad.in
with data source being John Hopkins CSE open sourced based on cited sources.
"R0" is a value which estimates how many persons contract the disease from an infected person
A R0 value of 2 indicates 1 infected person has infected 2 others.
It can be observed that R0 value has been increasing in India despite 3 lockdowns
CONCLUSION : All LOCKDOWNS 1 to 3 have failed to bring down R0
Graph #2 : Graph released by Govt of India on 24-April-2020 at Vigyan Bhawan Press Briefing
This graph (created by a RSS paediatrician Dr. S Ramji who self admittedly has no expertise in epidemiology) had the Vice Chairman of NITI Ayog (India's central planning authority) foolishly claiming that India will be COVID free by May 16 2020, enabling Lockdown-3.0 to end on 17 May 2020
The serious error in this graph is the discredited and erroneous projections based on moving average of "doubling period/rate" of 3 days.
CONCLUSION :
The NITI AYOG is headed by RSS morons who know only Vedic mathematics
Graph #3 : Trend Lines for Corona Infections in India
NB: This graph was created on May 8 when there were 56,000 cases, today after 5 days there are 78,000 cases.
Conclusions:
1) The disease cannot be said to have peaked in India.
1) The disease cannot be said to have peaked in India.
2) Any conclusions or projections being made on "Doubling rate" are
fallacious and misleading
3) The disease is likely to continue for at least another 45 days at this level
4) India will overtake China in number of infections within next 2 days
5) This Govt seems to be doing everything possible to increase the number
of CORONA cases in India. Every step being taken by Ministry of Home
Affairs (MHA) or the Ministry of Health (MoHFW) is deliberately
designed to increase the number of cases and distribute this disease
widely throughout India. The government is simply not listening to experts
and has fallen back to achieving the alleged "herd immunity".
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