Sunday, July 23, 2017

[IAC#RG] A Nobel prize winner explains why "AAP is an A-team and B-team party".

For experts only:-

India Against Corruption has consistently stated from the time of
formation of the Aam Aadmi Party in Oct 2012 that AAP is an A-team of
Congress and B-team of BJP.

However, to understand this curious situation we need to understand
Nobel Prize winner (Economics:1972) Kenneth Arrow's "impossibility

Kenneth Arrow investigated the general problem of finding a rule for
constructing social preferences from individual preferences. As an
introduction to the problem suppose we wanted to find the social
preference for the three ice cream flavors, vanilla (A), chocolate (B)
and strawberry (C). One possible method for determining the social
preference is by majority voting on choices between each pair of

• 45 votes A > B > C (45 people prefer A over B and prefer B over C)
• 40 votes B > C > A (40 people prefer B over C and prefer C over A)
• 30 votes C > A > B (30 people prefer C over A and prefer A over B)

Flavor A has the most votes, so it would be the winner. However, if B
was not made, C would be the winner, as more people prefer C over A.
(A would have 45 votes and C would have 70).

This result is a demonstration of Arrow's theorem which states that a
clear order of preferences cannot be determined while adhering to
mandatory principles of fair voting procedures. In other words, there
is no rule, majority voting or otherwise, for establishing social
preferences from arbitrary individual preferences. This theorem
indirectly explains why AAP is now crying over rigged EVMs. (NB: The
fact that EVMs are riggable and actually rigged is another story).

This was a major result and for it and other work Kenneth Arrow
received the Nobel prize in economics.

Is there a way out of this dilema ? Arrow says there is one (and only one)

"Social preferences should depend only upon the preferences of one
individual; i.e., the Dictator".

So the consequence of this is the well known 'Gibbard–Satterthwaite
theorem' which states that if a social choice function whose range
contains at least three alternatives is strategy-proof, then it is

MORAL : Apparently if Arvind Kejriwal was not CM of Delhi then
Narendra Modi would not be PM of India.


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